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What's up with Katia?

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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts

Initially Posted - 09/03/2011 : 06:42:16

Katia is lurking out in the tropical Atlantic gaining speed and strength. It's predicted to threaten the eastern Seaboard sometime late next week. Could be a Cat 3 by then, so was Irene just the warmup?

Add to that, TS Lee is predicted to meander up the Appalachians all this week. This will give us a soaking.

Stay tuned. Let's see how things progress.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain � Milford, CT

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9076 Posts

Response Posted - 09/03/2011 : 07:22:47

Ya, I don't like the look of Katia's forecast at all...

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John Russell
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Response Posted - 09/03/2011 : 09:26:46

I'm surprised we haven't heard much about the hammering the gulf coast has gotten this week.

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John Russell
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Response Posted - 09/03/2011 : 09:30:40

Looks like Newfoundland and Nova Scotia are the targets now.

Edited by - John Russell on 09/03/2011 09:31:10

Voyager
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Response Posted - 09/03/2011 : 18:56:17

Funny about the ensemble model -- puts the storm safely out to sea. if you look at the individual component models, some put it directly onshore in South Carolina. Another runs it straight up the Atlantic coast -- like the Long Island Express (1938 storm). If each is equally likely, any outcome can take place, not just the average.

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John Russell
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Response Posted - 09/03/2011 : 19:30:11

The range of possibilities for Irene (at this stage in its life) included its passing over the western end of Lake Erie. As it happened, it went just a tad west of what the models projected as most likely.

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britinusa
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Response Posted - 09/04/2011 : 06:21:30

The extreme models obviously influence the long range outcome the most. Disregarding the GFS model would appear to steer the storms track to the Carolina's
The good news is that it looks like this one will be well out of our way (even if it does make it to SoFla) by our next trip

Paul

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Voyager
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Response Posted - 09/05/2011 : 20:38:13

Holy cow! I was just watching the 11 o'clock news and Katia is now a CATEGORY 4! Good thing she's predicted to miss land, but woe to they who may be out at sea! And the New England coast is in for huge waves and rip currents. Look out!

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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
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Response Posted - 09/05/2011 : 22:27:38

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by John Russell
 The range of possibilities for Irene (at this stage in its life) included its passing over the western end of Lake Erie. As it happened, it went just a tad west of what the models projected as most likely.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">West??? Not from our point of view (where she ended up)!

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/05/2011 22:28:35

John Russell
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Response Posted - 09/06/2011 : 06:45:17

I meant the center of the storm, Dave. Until the last day or two of the storm watching it had been projected to hit you in Connecticut and continue on to Boston. It hit New York and continued north from there. That's a tad west. You know, in the horseshoes, hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons sense.

Edited by - John Russell on 09/06/2011 06:47:47

Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9076 Posts

Response Posted - 09/06/2011 : 07:15:02

Well, OK, a "tad" (if you mean a few miles)--the center went right up the CT-NY state line, putting the worst of the rain in NJ (as expected), and the worst of the wind (just barely Tropical Storm force) in Long Island and CT. Relative to the forecast over the last three days, that's sorta like aiming an nuclear ICBM at your house and hitting the garage--hard to tell the difference! The only thing they missed significantly was the degree of weakening.

I hope they're doing as well with Katia!

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/06/2011 07:16:57

bigelowp
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Response Posted - 09/06/2011 : 10:46:54

Meteorology is an interesting "science". My friends in VT can not figure out what hit them as Irene seemed to be no worse than other storms while we in coastal CT have had far worse "no name" storms. Meanwhile the weather guy's technology has advanced to something like Doppler 50-zillion providing the ability to "model" every permutation and combination. Go figure, Mother Nature WILL have her way as fools we mortals be.

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islander
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Response Posted - 09/06/2011 : 13:43:09

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Meteorology is an interesting "science". <hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
And probably one of the best jobs there is. Not only is it interesting but what other job can you be wrong so many times and not get fired.

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John Russell
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Response Posted - 09/06/2011 : 14:51:05

<blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Originally posted by islander
 <blockquote id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Meteorology is an interesting "science". <hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">
And probably one of the best jobs there is. Not only is it interesting but what other job can you be wrong so many times and not get fired.
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote">Be wrong 7 out of 10 times and you're a baseball star!

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