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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Initially Posted - 08/24/2023 :  22:42:10  Show Profile
Following the almost unprecedented tropical storm in Los Angeles and SoCal, and one in South Texas, it’s time to think about tropical weather. Here on the Atlantic coast, we’ve got Frederick who is going to literally “gather steam” and move up the seaboard between the coastline and Bermuda in the next 7-10 days, and hopefully make the right turn out into the North Atlantic. It should pass safely offshore but stir up big waves and rip currents on ocean facing beaches.
Following just behind this is another storm that got started off the Pacific coast of Central America and will cross over land and build in the Caribbean and Gulf into a tropical storm to approach the west coast of Florida later in the coming week. Not sure what name will be assigned (I named, J named, or K named), but once it crosses the FLA peninsula it’ll be back out in the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream building into a Category 2 or 3, then hugging the SC, NC, and DelMarVa coast during the Labor Day weekend. It looks to hover close to land for 3-5 days afterwards.
Stay tuned because the mid-Atlantic is getting busy too. Stay smart, take proper precautions and stay safe!!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 08/24/2023 22:47:11

Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 08/25/2023 :  06:06:34  Show Profile
Idalia, José, Katia are the upcoming names…
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9044 Posts
Response Posted - 08/25/2023 :  20:36:18  Show Profile
Where are you getting this stuff?? Nobody I know of is projecting anything that far out.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/25/2023 20:37:58
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 08/26/2023 :  06:16:38  Show Profile
The Windy app — it’s been pretty consistent, and Mikes Weather Page. https://spaghettimodels.com/
Check out Tropical Tidbits: for Invest 93L https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#93L
The info is pretty eye-opening. I also saw a YouTube today from Houston TX Fox 58 (I think). They spent a good 15 minutes discussing each weather prediction models for what will become TS Idalia.
Let’s prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 08/26/2023 21:47:16
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5314 Posts
Response Posted - 08/29/2023 :  19:40:18  Show Profile
So it begins. Another extraordinary storm at our door. According to the Weather Channel, Apalachicola Bay has never seen as strong a hurricane as Idalia is expected to be, Category 3 at landfall with a predicted storm surge of 12+ feet.
A lot of the rapid development of the storm between its encounter with Cuba and its arrival in Florida is due to the ocean water in the Gulf of Mexico being a lot warmer than average throughout the entire water column, not just at the surface.
The FL Governor literally pleaded with residents yesterday morning to heed the evacuation orders knowing that the power of the storm should not be underestimated.
Georgia authorities are also calling for its residents in SE Georgia to move away from the main path of the storm, as both freshwater and saltwater flooding is anticipated.
Ray, I don’t think that it will quite reach Suwannee, but keep an eye peeled!
Our friends both in SC and NC coastal areas should remain vigilant. Because of the speed of the storm, it should be brief and should pass out into the Atlantic Ocean in a day or so following landfall.
Stay safe all.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/07/2023 :  13:52:57  Show Profile
More. Lee, which is predicted by the National Hurricane Center to become a category 4 or 5, appears to be heading towards the NC Outer Banks in approximately 8 or 9 days. At that time it’s expected to downgrade to category 3 or 4, but still be a major hurricane.
That’s still a long way off and meteorologists still do not have a crystal ball. Just sayin’
I have a friend who is planning to sail down to Florida in the ICW shortly and is hoping for a weather window. I advised that mid-September might not be the best time for that.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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OLarryR
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3408 Posts
Response Posted - 09/07/2023 :  20:40:43  Show Profile  Visit OLarryR's Homepage
As you indicated, still a bit early to determine true path of Hurricane Lee, however, latest "spaghetti " models (approximately 20 different projections) almost all indicate it's current path toward US Florida/Carolinas coastline will change heading it north to the Maine/Canada region.
Larry
'89 Robin's Nest#5820, Potomac River/Quantico, Va
http://catalina25.homestead.com/olarryr.html
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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1757 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2023 :  09:38:58  Show Profile
Looking at Lee, it sure appears to have a reasonably good probability to run up the east coast to New England and even if it downgrades to a cat-1 storm, will be a serious one to prepare for and deal with.
Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
Port Captain: Rowayton/Norwalk/Darien CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2023 :  15:53:00  Show Profile
Heavens! According to the Euro model (the has a better track record than most), Saturday 16-Sept looks like a very close shave for Cape Cod. But, because they waver, there’s about a 50-50 chance that it’ll pass out to sea. Let’s hope.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4010 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2023 :  17:01:12  Show Profile
Speaking of Lee, report is 165 mph sustained and get this....gusts to 200! Now it's supposed to weaken some but 200? I can't get my head around that.
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


Edited by - islander on 09/08/2023 17:08:34
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Voyager
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5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2023 :  20:00:57  Show Profile
I think that 200 mph is equivalent to an EF4 or EF5 tornado, but not just screaming for a few minutes, but for hours!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5881 Posts
Response Posted - 09/09/2023 :  04:30:45  Show Profile
Until now, the highest hurricane wind speed ever recorded globally was 215 mph (Hurricane Patricia in Eastern Pacific in 2015). The highest in the Atlantic basin was 190 mph (Hurricane Allen in 1980).
Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore
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Voyager
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5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/10/2023 :  07:04:41  Show Profile
I just heard from my buddy who has a 34 ft sailboat and he’s planning to set out in two weeks to take the ICW in his boat down to Florida from Long Island Sound. I’m guessing that Lee will be in the books by then and the next one will be elsewhere. The risky part of the trip will be running down the Jersey shore until he rounds Cape May into the Delaware Bay. Once inside the bays, he should have a modicum of protection from all but a direct hit.
Ill advised?
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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5881 Posts
Response Posted - 09/10/2023 :  08:50:17  Show Profile
If he waits for a favorable weather window, your friend should be able to sail or motorsail down the Jersey shore to Cape May in about 24 hours non-stop. It still shouldn't be difficult to find 24 hours of fair weather for the trip. He could break it up into 2 days by stopping at Atlantic City or one of the other inlets along the way. I've been in Absecon Inlet at Atlantic City, and Barnegat Inlet and Ocean City inlets are alternatives. IMO, as long as there isn't a hurricane or storm in the area, it should be no problem. For such a long trip to Florida, especially on the ICW, he should have tow insurance.
Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/11/2023 :  15:37:34  Show Profile
Thank you Steve,
That’s good to know about how long it will take to make the outside passage along the NJ coast. Of course sometimes in challenging weather or sea state conditions, the inlets can become treacherous. It’s best to anticipate, so as to not be surprised by bad weather.
I will point out your recommendation about a towing package. Any thoughts on which company has a wider geographic reach? Boat US or Sea Tow. My insurance package affords me some limited tow services, but I’ve never tested it for myself.
I did a quick survey of websites and YouTubes and the typical advice is to prepare for any eventuality, determine whether you have any single points of failure (engine, rudder, tiller stays and shrouds, communications, contacts, fresh water, backup meals, spares,… And learn from others who’ve done it once or twice.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5881 Posts
Response Posted - 09/11/2023 :  16:50:26  Show Profile
Here's a link to a recent comparison of Tow Boat US and Sea Tow. https://www.marinerexchange.com/blog/choosing-boat-towing-service-towboatus-vs-sea-tow/25 Tow Boat US is bigger, with more locations. I doubt that there's anyplace along the east coast ICW that Tow Boat US doesn't serve. I vaguely recall someone telling me once that the two companies have an agreement to cooperate with each other, so that one will provide service where the other is absent, but I haven't heard that from an authoritative source.

Absecon Inlet at Atlantic City is a very big inlet and it is reportedly deep and reliable in just about all weather conditions. There is some shallow water called Brigantine Shoal that you need to avoid, 1.7 NM northeast of the entrance with depths of 5 to 17 feet. As I recall, you need to stay a fair distance offshore to avoid them. He should look for them on his chart.

I've never entered Barnegat Inlet and Ocean City inlets, but suspect they're more marginal in foul weather.
Steve Milby J/24 "Captiva Wind"
previously C&C 35, Cal 25, C25 TR/FK, C22
Past Commodore
Edited by - Steve Milby on 09/11/2023 17:03:34
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/13/2023 :  18:57:59  Show Profile
Thank you Steve,
I looked at my charting app and noted the inlet, its marker buoys for its nearly N-S entry channel, and the locations of the nearby shoaling. It’s especially tricky when approaching from the north, since you have to give the Brigantine Shoals a wide berth. I sent my buddy some tips on this and a recommendation to subscribe, at least for the period between now and the completion of the trip, to the boat tow service.
I plan to visit him this weekend. I’m curious to know what his planning has been like.
Good news is that he probably has 30+ days to get south of Chesapeake Bay
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9044 Posts
Response Posted - 09/15/2023 :  12:20:01  Show Profile
Bruce, your friend should also check his insurance for when he will be covered south of what latitude. It is common for southward-migrating yachts to congregate on the Chesapeake until they are "allowed" to go farther south, either on the ICW or outside. Jumping the gun could nullify an insurance policy.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/15/2023 12:37:34
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Stinkpotter
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Djibouti
9044 Posts
Response Posted - 09/15/2023 :  12:32:52  Show Profile
Speaking of treacherous inlets, this afternoon, with Lee kicking things up on the Long Island south shore, a sailboat was caught outside the Shinnecock Inlet with huge breaking seas, and the Coast Guard was sending a chopper to lift the people off. (That'll be fun.) I don't know what's to happen to the boat... This was being witnessed live on WCBS in NY by a fishing boat on the inside--he said it was all hell out there and much worse in the inlet. Somebody needs a new weather app!
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/15/2023 12:36:21
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4010 Posts
Response Posted - 09/16/2023 :  05:36:18  Show Profile
Doesn't appear that the boat had a mainsail. I wonder if they were motoring to a destination thinking they could beat the bad conditions. If so they thought wrong.
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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hlprmnky
1st Mate

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USA
41 Posts
Response Posted - 09/16/2023 :  07:48:09  Show Profile
A possibly very important point about at least TowBoat US’s coverage is that IIRC you have to be a member in good standing for a certain period (30 days maybe?) before you get your “free towing” benefit. I assume this is because offering one-off tows at the price point of one month’s membership fee is not sustainable for them.
1986 C25 SR/FK/Trad. “Puffin III” - #5040
Sailing Lake Michigan out of Michigan City, IN
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 09/21/2023 :  09:34:51  Show Profile
Watching an area of disturbed weather off the east coast of Florida and South Carolina that meteorologists predict will begin moving northward this evening and into the weekend. While it doesn’t have tropical characteristics now, it’s forecasted to become a northeasterly gale in the coming days. It’s expected to ruin our weekend around here on Long Island Sound and the Northeast. Probably way less damaging than Lee was in northern N.E. and maritime Canada, but a beach erosion and high tide event nonetheless.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5314 Posts
Response Posted - 10/04/2023 :  15:40:19  Show Profile
Anybody watching Philippe? Seemed like it was meandering around the tropical Atlantic for awhile, but now it’s bringing foul weather to the Virgin Isles and Puerto Rico, then Bermuda by Friday, and Cape Cod and the islands on Saturday. Depending on the cloud patterns, it should pass well to the east of eastern New England, i.e.: RI, MA, and Maine, before heading towards the Canadian Maritimes and Ontario.

While the rain from Philippe is not expected to directly reach the northeastern states, it is expected to amplify the intensity of a strong cold front that will reach the border area between NY, VT, MA, and CT coincident with the tropical storm. This enhanced front is expected to cause a flooding event similar to what we saw last week affecting New York City subways and LaGuardia Airport.

This NHC-NOAA/NWS website shows the prediction for this weekend: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/234650.shtml?ero#contents

~~~ … ~~~…~~~\__^__/~~~…~~~…~~~
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 10/05/2023 19:39:42
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Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.