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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4018 Posts
Initially Posted - 09/07/2018 :  15:45:11  Show Profile
Florence
Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts
Response Posted - 09/07/2018 :  17:12:38  Show Profile
I keep my eye on Mike’s Weather Page aka spaghettimodels.com
Beware since the page sometimes pops up a “Hello Amazon User” JavaScript.

But most of the time you’ll get a good number of highly accurate storm predictions from NOAA/NWS and other knowledgeable sources.

Last time we were threatened (minor tropical storm), I double tied Passage to the floating dock — which is bungeed to the seafloor by 4 corkscrew anchors. Not going anywhere.

Before that I thought I’d outsmart SuperStorm Sandy - she paid us a visit with a tidal surge. That night, the dock almost came over the top of the 14 foot pilings. We experienced an incredible 12.5 ft tidal surge!!!

This time I’m on a newer slip in a protected harbor. Marina owner insists we strip all canvas and loose items. Double tie with nylon line.

Fingers crossed!!!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 09/07/2018 17:30:14
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts
Response Posted - 09/07/2018 :  17:20:29  Show Profile
Here’s a map that’s “interesting”

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06L_gefs_latest.png

There’s a whole crop of invest areas, potential tropical waves and areas to watch popping up all over the Atlantic Basin.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 09/07/2018 17:35:15
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1773 Posts
Response Posted - 09/07/2018 :  18:36:33  Show Profile
Definitely need to pay attention. Currently the consensus is hitting the Carolinas. However rain and residual wind may well impact everyone up to Boston. Naturally the event will take place during the week while I am on the West Coast -- so going through that "should I or should I not" remove sails, etc, etc.
Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
Port Captain: Rowayton/Norwalk/Darien CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2018 :  07:53:40  Show Profile
Peter, go ahead and remove your sails. Then Florence will guaranteed to go out to sea!
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9076 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2018 :  11:31:30  Show Profile
Murphy's Fifth Corollary (by my list): "If you've prepared for what might go wrong, it won't."
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts
Response Posted - 09/08/2018 :  14:33:30  Show Profile
Good news is maybe Florence will be a miss. Bad news is there are a bunch more lining up right behind. The satellite view from central Africa where many Cape Verde tropical storms originate looks very active this week. Without the El Niño effects we recently had in the Atlantic basin, there’s very little to stop development of new storms. Sept 15 is peak season so we’re only halfway through hurricane season...
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9076 Posts
Response Posted - 09/09/2018 :  08:17:27  Show Profile
A miss unless you live in the Carolinas... Isaac appears headed for the Caribbean, and Helene into the North Atlantic. We'll hope...
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
Edited by - Stinkpotter on 09/09/2018 08:19:26
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Peregrine
Admiral

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830 Posts
Response Posted - 09/09/2018 :  14:33:06  Show Profile  Visit Peregrine's Homepage
“All indications are that Florence will be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States,” the hurricane center said. A Category 4 storm packs winds of 130 mph (209 kph) or more"

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/florence-becomes-a-hurricane-takes-aim-at-u-s-southeast

John Gisondi
Peregrine #4762

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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
5352 Posts
Response Posted - 09/09/2018 :  20:52:10  Show Profile
While John is correct within the capabilities of the mathematical models involved, there are still several areas of uncertainty related to chaos theory for storm forecasting. The first rule of chaos theory is that a very small effect at time 1 can turn into the determining factor at time 2. The second rule is that the conditions taking place just prior to the current observation have a far greater effect on the current observation than all the prior conditions put together. Needless to say, the math is exceedingly counterintuitive.
From the “spaghetti models” resulting from dozens of runs of the math, an extraordinary degree of agreement in the models (at this time) is displayed.
Fingers crossed for our families and friends in the Carolinas.
If you have any, please help them with any emergency planning which they may (or may not) be making at this time. If I were there, I’d grab my ditch bag and would lock up the house and head to Denver.
Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
Edited by - Voyager on 09/09/2018 21:02:10
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Peregrine
Admiral

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830 Posts
Response Posted - 09/10/2018 :  13:13:38  Show Profile  Visit Peregrine's Homepage
The Weather Channel is IMO indulging in some fear mongering because they have to say something for the next couple of days BUT
The fact is Florence is now a Cat #4

John Gisondi
Peregrine #4762

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redeye
Master Marine Consultant

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3476 Posts
Response Posted - 09/10/2018 :  16:37:14  Show Profile
If I was in the Carolina lowlands I would be heading for high ground.
Ray in Atlanta, Ga.
"Lee Key" '84 Catalina 25
Standard Rig / Fin Keel
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
9076 Posts
Response Posted - 09/11/2018 :  22:39:42  Show Profile
The forecast is to reach cat-5 Wed. (gusts to 200) with landfall Fri. Whether cat-4 or 5, we're talking about sustained winds that are about DOUBLE a Cat-1 hurricane (if we can imagine that), epic surges and fire-hose rain. Then, as it works in around the NC-SC line as a hurricane and then tropical storm, it will create huge flooding and wind damage. I have family in this area and hope for the best.

Word is these high-category hurricanes are going to be an increasing part of our lives on the east and gulf coasts.
Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic/Stonington CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, USCG "sixpack" (expired),
Now on Eastern 27 $+!nkp*+ Sarge
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Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.