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The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ.
The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.
In our sail locker we have 2 155% genoas, two 110% jibs, and a storm jib. The other day Brian Chapman of UK sails was at the marina and advised that our 155% would be good for winds up to 15 kts, and that then we should drop down to the 110%.
This past week we listened to the radio before our club races and they were reporting winds in the 16 kts range.
What sail would you fly?
We put out the 155% and ended up doing a sail change before the start. My thinking was that if the winds were borderline for the sail area, I would want as much speed as possible. Other folks pointed out that flying the larger sail was a risk since if the wind was building I would have been way overpowered.
I have a similar issue in that I have a #1 (155) and #3 (110), but no #2. I've gotten into trouble carrying the #1 at too high (found out later it was 20G30, yeah just a bit overpowered), but lost races to #2's when we flew the #3. The "official" top-end is determined as much by your experience and your sailmaker (and condition of your sails), but lacking a #2 I've been comfortable carrying a #1 up to 20k with the cars well back.
If you're not racing, then I'd say definitely 15k for the #1's top end. No reason to punish it OR yourselves. Esp if you know the conditions are building.
Jim's advice is sound, just remember that you're also dealing with gusts on top of your 15kts-20kts. Also consider that you will better deal with the larger sail if you have crew sitting on your rail, so if you're short-handed you'll want to change out earlier. Go out and practice during off-hours to figure out the best sheeting angle in heavier air, this is something that will cost you places during a race. You'll probably want to flatten the bottom of your main more and twist off the top more than you normally would in these conditions.
I have a 150 on a roller furler, It does not really hold shape well partially furled, so I only do that when things get really hairy (say 30 + gusts) and then just long enough to get everything stashed and headed in. I have found that if I reef the main, I can use the full head sail in just about any conditions. Sometimes if it is really blowing (like last night) I will let the main (reefed) out a bit so the boom end is about 1 or 2 feet from center line with visible back wind bulge near the mast, and it is still very controllable and fast. Just off our best point of sail last night we were consistently above 6 knts and saw speeds above 7 several times with a high of 7.3 (GPS Lake, no current)and, if the fecal matter and the fan blades are sharing the same space, rolling up the Genoa leaves me with just the reefed main to deal with anything nastier. Our lake has such variable winds that trying to pick the right sail for a race is impossible.
I would be concerned with the rigging stress factor (maybe just my ignorance) with a 155 out in more than 20 kts, and wouldn't want to worry about dumping (usually it's just me manning the tiller and the sails) either so would definitely wimp out and go with the 110
For speed, like Jeff, I'd reef the main before downsizing up front. The genny gives more drive with less heeling force--it's a front-wheel-drive rig. Your genoa sheet cars, moved back, can allow the top to twist off to help keep you on your feet, still with plenty of drive down low. If, on the other hand, you decide you don't need the reef, you can shake it out much quicker than you can change to a bigger headsail.
Notice: The advice given on this site is based upon individual or quoted experience, yours may differ. The Officers, Staff and members of this site only provide information based upon the concept that anyone utilizing this information does so at their own risk and holds harmless all contributors to this site.