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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4629 Posts

Initially Posted - 07/28/2020 :  06:33:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
There’s a new tropical storm on the horizon that’s following a familiar path we’ve seen in the past several years.

Gonzalo has come and gone, but this one has better than 60% odds of becoming a Category 1 and beyond and is expected to hit the Windward Islands/ Lesser Antilles, then Puerto Rico, Hispañola, the entire Bahamas chain, threaten the East Coast of the US, ping the NC outer banks, then take aim at Long Island, CT and Cape Cod, finally moving into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. This development is expected to take place over the course of the next 7-10 days.

Now, with ‘Canes, anything is possible especially over the course of many days, however the US and European Spaghetti Models are pretty consistent on this one based on the very static Bermuda High pressure center we’ve been suffering with for the past 7 days. HHHs

Mike’s Weather Page gives a pretty good rundown https://spaghettimodels.com/

He uses several NOAA NWS products as well as Hurricane alley based TV meteorology pages.

He provides a nice series of discussions on the page as well as on social media (FB).

Looks like we’re off to the races early this year! We’re not even up to August 1, midsummer, and the tropics are heating up (literally!)

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT

Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1505 Posts

Response Posted - 07/28/2020 :  08:27:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
As a resident of Florida for about 26 years now..........

Any prediction, at this point, is a waste of time.

The Euro model that Windy uses, as of it right now, has it getting pretty torn up by DR and Cuba.

Of course, in three days, all of the models will say something else.

Get prepared, but don't worry about anything this far out.





Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4629 Posts

Response Posted - 07/29/2020 :  19:19:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Davy, your view was exactly spot on a day ago, but looking at the intensity numbers, it’s expected to rebuild into a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it gets to North Carolina, then it’s headed toward the area near Cape Cod known as 40-70. It’s a spot directly at the confluence of the chilly Labrador Current and the very warm Gulf Stream. This position is known to produce “bomb cyclones” and nor’easters.
Of course this could become a nothing burger (hopefully) but only time will tell.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1505 Posts

Response Posted - 07/30/2020 :  02:34:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
So far the two most used models are way apart.

Yesterday the Euro had the storm meandering through the Florida straits then into the Gulf, and the GFS had it coming up the east coast of Florida.

This morning, the Euro has it heading to Miami as a weak storm then across the Everglades, then pop back out into the Gulf. The GFS has it staying off the east coast of Florida, but..... becoming a much stronger storm.

My guess is that tomorrow morning, things will have changed again.

Funny, having followed these things for a long time, we start to "root for" one of the models or the other. More times than not, it is the Euro. In this case we are rooting for the GFS......




Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4629 Posts

Response Posted - 07/30/2020 :  14:35:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
FYI, I read a news article about 3 months ago that the GFS model was unintentionally flawed somewhat by a more simplistic and less costly design, while the Euro model received more extensive investment.

My local TV meteorologist has demonstrated that the Euro model has been more accurate by comparing predictions to outcomes.

Nonetheless, it’s good to have varying predictions even if they’re not correct to make sure the public remains vigilant to life-threatening conditions and don’t become complacent.

Of course, it’s best not to “cry wolf” too often or else you’ll lose the public trust.

Should be noted that NOAA/NWS has been working to improve their batting average in the past year and will likely make the needed investments soon.

Chaos theory isn’t easy and because it’s computationally intensive, you need to dedicate a TON of horsepower to the task.

I believe someone compared it to predicting the effect of the flutter of a butterfly’s wing in Africa on the force of a hurricane in Miami.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4629 Posts

Response Posted - 07/31/2020 :  21:49:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Now we see that the storm is a Cat 1 aiming for the East Coast of Florida, then heading up toward NC.

The storm then goes back out over the ocean and drives over to Long Island and CT on Tuesday evening. It should be a tropical storm then.

The difference between the GFS and Euro models is GFS says the storm arrives earlier, and passes more quickly with a minimum of rain. Euro says that the storm slows down and drops a lot more rain in NY and CT. If I get more than 3” of rain in an hour or two, the creek rises and we have to breakout the sandbags and canoes. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

We shall see.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1505 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  02:57:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The two models this morning now have the track of the storm taking the same course.

Things will get sporty on the east coast and for the Carolinas. Good thing it hasn't had time to get to cat 3 or 4.

As for the computer models, both were indicating hitting DR and Cuba. It went well to the east of DR and Cubans were drinking coffee and looking to the east........

Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3777 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  07:07:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looks like everyone on the east coast is going to get a piece of this one.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
8582 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  09:41:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bullseye on Mystic (as of 11 AM today)--as a tropical storm (forecast at 40-50 mph from the east). Long Island Sound and my Mystic River shorline should expect a surge. But the "cone" still reaches from PA and Upstate NY to 100 miles off-shore. And other storms like this have broken out of the cone and made unexpected turns toward Portugal...

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic, CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, ex-USCG-OUPV
Now on Eastern 27 Sarge (but still sailing when I can).

Passage, Mystic, and Sarge--click to enlarge.
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
8582 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  15:19:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Forecast shifting slightly westward...
Edit: ...and even further, which centers him over land from NC on up. In that case, much of the excitement is pretty much over up here, except for the rain in his NW quadrant. But the jury's still out...

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic, CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, ex-USCG-OUPV
Now on Eastern 27 Sarge (but still sailing when I can).

Passage, Mystic, and Sarge--click to enlarge.

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/01/2020 20:53:15
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5484 Posts

Response Posted - 08/03/2020 :  07:19:51  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looking like a direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay, and here I sit in Ohio. My big boat is on the hard and covered in a well sheltered marina. It should be ok unless it gets blown off the jackstands or the cover gets shredded.

The Cal 25 is in its slip in the heart of Annapolis. The forecast I've received is for storm surge about 4 ft above MLW tomorrow. Friends will adjust my docklines, so it too should be ok unless a nearby boat breaks loose and drifts into it, or unless the whole dock gets uprooted.

I hope I don't see my Cal 25 on the news, in pieces, in a pile of crumpled fiberglass. This is when we appreciate our insurance!

Steve Milby C&C 35 Landfall ("Captiva Wind"); Cal 25 ("Fahrvergnügen")
Past Commodore
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